Boston
Vermeulens has released its market outlook report for the fourth quarter of 2017. Key points include:
- Construction Price escalation nationally has trended to 4% per annum for Q4 2017.
- Construction Cost Trendline: Due to consistent increases in construction costs over the past few years, the Vermeulens Index long term trendline is up from 3.3% to 3.4%.
- Energy and commodity prices have regained an upward trend following a flat Q3, led by a strong increase in energy indices and a slight recovery in metals from the previous quarter.
- Consumer Price Index: After a flat first half of 2017, CPI is trending back to expected long term averages at 2.5%.
- Construction Dollar Volume has increased by 5.4% year over year (Dec 16/Dec 17). Year over year growth can be attributed to Residential (10.6%) and Infrastructure (3.4%) spending. Non‐Residential spending has reversed its downward trend from Q3 and is up 1.9% year over year.
- New York Stock Exchange: The stock market continues to reach all‐time highs, with Q4 yielding a 4.9% increase in equities.
- Growth in Employment: Monthly rolling average job growth at the end of Q4 sits at 171,000 jobs, showing a continuation of the downward shift from the 249,000 average seen in the second half of 2014. Q4 did, however, exhibit an improvement over Q3 with the 38,000 jobs added in September.
- Construction Job Growth: We are at full employment in the construction sector. 2017 has seen the addition of 176,000 construction jobs (2.5%) nation‐wide. Wage and profit increases in the sector will continue to draw employment from new entrants and other sectors.
- Gross Domestic Product remained in line with long term expectations and carried a 2.5% growth rate through Q4.
The complete Market Outlook – Q4 2017 report is available from Vermeulens.
| Organization | Project Role |
|---|---|
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Vermeulens
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Construction Cost Consultant and Market Analyst
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Source
