Vermeulens has released its market outlook report for the fourth quarter of 2018. Key points include:
- Construction price escalation nationally has trended to 4 percent per annum for the third quarter of 2018.
- Commodity prices have seen little to no growth since Q2 2016, while falling almost 10 percent in Q4 2018.
- Consumer price index growth has slowed and dropped from the long-term average, from 2.6 percent to 2.5 percent.
- Construction dollar volume has increased by 3.8 percent year over year. Non-residential spending has continued its upward trend from 2017 Q4 and is up 4.3 percent year over year.
- The stock market began entering a correctional period at the end of Q3 and experienced a heavy correction erasing all gains from 2018 by the end of December. The NYSE fell 13 percent in Q4 and 11 percent overall in 2018.
- Six-month rolling average job growth at the end of Q4 sits at 254,000 jobs, a reversal of the moderating trend since the second half of 2014.
- We are at full employment in the construction sector. Q4 has seen the addition of 69,000 construction jobs (0.9 percent) nationwide.
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) maintained a strong annualized growth rate of 4 percent through Q4 2018.
The Market Outlook – Q4 2018 report is available from Vermeulens.